{"@context":"https://neupai.io/schema/v0.2","@type":"StructuredNewsArticle","identity":{"article_id":"tech42_20260427_polymarket-172m-accounts-analysis","canonical_url":"https://www.tech42.co.kr/%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%a7%88%ec%bc%93-172%eb%a7%8c-%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%95-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ea%b2%b0%ea%b3%bc%ec%a7%91%eb%8b%a8-%ec%a7%80%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%84%eb%8b%8c-%ec%86%8c%ec%88%98/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25ed%258f%25b4%25eb%25a6%25ac%25eb%25a7%2588%25ec%25bc%2593-172%25eb%25a7%258c-%25ea%25b3%2584%25ec%25a0%2595-%25eb%25b6%2584%25ec%2584%259d-%25ea%25b2%25b0%25ea%25b3%25bc%25ec%25a7%2591%25eb%258b%25a8-%25ec%25a7%2580%25ec%2584%25b1-%25ec%2595%2584%25eb%258b%258c-%25ec%2586%258c%25ec%2588%2598","ai_url":null,"publisher":{"name":"테크42","domain":"www.tech42.co.kr","type":"online"},"author":"앨리스","published_at":"2026-04-27T23:48:59.000Z","updated_at":null,"language":"ko","article_type":"straight_news","originality":"self_produced"},"content":{"headline":"폴리마켓 172만 계정 분석 결과…'집단 지성' 아닌 소수가 가격 결정","summary":"런던비즈니스스쿨과 예일대 연구팀이 폴리마켓 172만 계정을 분석한 결과, 전체의 3.14%만이 가격 정확도를 주도하며 나머지 97%는 단순히 유동성만 공급한다는 연구 결과를 발표했다.","topics":["핀테크","예측시장","암호화폐","연구"],"geography":["US","GB"],"entities":[{"name":"폴리마켓","canonical_id":"corp:us:polymarket","type":"company","role_in_article":"primary_subject","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"런던비즈니스스쿨","canonical_id":"org:gb:london-business-school","type":"organization","role_in_article":"source","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"예일대","canonical_id":"org:us:yale-university","type":"organization","role_in_article":"source","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"칼시","canonical_id":"corp:us:kalshi","type":"company","role_in_article":"mentioned","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"미국 상품선물거래위원회","canonical_id":"org:us:cftc","type":"organization","role_in_article":"mentioned","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"니콜라스 마두로","canonical_id":"person:ve:nicolas-maduro","type":"person","role_in_article":"mentioned","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}}],"claims":[{"id":"c1","statement":"폴리마켓의 2023~2025년 전체 거래 계정 172만 개·137억 6,000만 달러(약 20조 2,714억원) 규모를 분석했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c2","statement":"전체 거래량이 137억 6,000만 달러(약 20조 2,714억원)에 달했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c3","statement":"전체의 단 3.14%에 해당하는 계정이 가격 정확도의 대부분을 주도했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c4","statement":"나머지 97%는 거래량과 유동성을 공급하지만 실질적인 정보를 만들어내지 못했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c5","statement":"각 트레이더의 베팅을 1만 번 무작위로 방향만 바꿔 재현하는 방식으로 스킬과 운을 구분했다","as_of":"2026-04","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2026년 4월","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c6","statement":"수익 상위권 중 벤치마크를 실제로 넘어선 계정은 12%에 불과했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c7","statement":"'운 좋은 승자'의 약 60%는 별도 샘플에서 손실로 돌아섰다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c8","statement":"내부 정보를 활용한 거래의 달러당 가격 영향력이 일반 숙련 거래의 7~12배에 달했다","as_of":"2023~2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":"general_skilled_trading","type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c9","statement":"올해 1월 미군의 니콜라스 마두로 체포 작전 직전 폴리마켓에서 신규 계정 3개가 집중 베팅했다","as_of":"2026-01","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"올해 1월","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null}],"ai_emotional_context":{"valence":0,"arousal":0,"primary_emotions":[],"secondary_emotions":[],"emotional_triggers":[]}},"provenance":{"source_chain":["primary_reporting"],"original_source_url":null,"related_articles":[]},"temporal":{"freshness":"recent","next_update_expected":null},"access":{"license":"neupai_standard","attribution_required":true,"structured_data":"free","full_text_available":false,"full_text_access":null}}