{"@context":"https://neupai.io/schema/v0.2","@type":"StructuredNewsArticle","identity":{"article_id":"tech42_20260427_polymarket-analysis-elite-traders","canonical_url":"https://www.tech42.co.kr/%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%a7%88%ec%bc%93-172%eb%a7%8c-%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%95-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ea%b2%b0%ea%b3%bc%ec%a7%91%eb%8b%a8-%ec%a7%80%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%84%eb%8b%8c-%ec%86%8c%ec%88%98/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25ed%258f%25b4%25eb%25a6%25ac%25eb%25a7%2588%25ec%25bc%2583-172%25eb%25a7%258c-%25ea%25b3%2584%25ec%25a0%2595-%25eb%25b6%2584%25ec%2584%259d-%25ea%25b2%25b0%25ea%25b3%25bc%25ec%25a7%2591%25eb%258b%25a8-%25ec%25a7%2580%25ec%2584%25b1-%25ec%2595%2584%25eb%258b%258c-%25ec%2586%258c%25ec%2588%2598","ai_url":null,"publisher":{"name":"테크42","domain":"tech42.co.kr","type":"online"},"author":"앨리스","published_at":"2026-04-27T23:48:59.000Z","updated_at":null,"language":"en","article_type":"straight_news","originality":"self_produced"},"content":{"headline":"Analysis of 1.72 Million Polymarket Accounts Reveals... Price Determined by Few, Not 'Collective Intelligence'","summary":"A joint research team from London Business School and Yale University analyzed 1.72 million Polymarket accounts and found that only 3.14% of all accounts drive price accuracy. This research result directly challenges the 'collective intelligence' premise of prediction markets.","topics":["prediction markets","polymarket","collective intelligence","fintech"],"geography":["GB","US"],"entities":[{"name":"London Business School","canonical_id":"org:gb:london-business-school","type":"organization","role_in_article":"source","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"Yale University","canonical_id":"org:us:yale-university","type":"organization","role_in_article":"source","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"Polymarket","canonical_id":"corp:us:tittaco","type":"company","role_in_article":"primary_subject","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"Kalshi","canonical_id":"corp:us:cab","type":"company","role_in_article":"mentioned","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}},{"name":"U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission","canonical_id":"org:us:cftc","type":"organization","role_in_article":"mentioned","metadata":{"ticker":null,"parent":null}}],"claims":[{"id":"c1","statement":"Polymarket had a total of 1.72 million trading accounts from 2023-2025","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c2","statement":"Polymarket's trading volume was $13.76 billion from 2023-2025","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c3","statement":"Only 3.14% of all accounts drove most of the price accuracy","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c4","statement":"The remaining 97% supplied trading volume and liquidity but failed to generate substantial information","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c5","statement":"They distinguished skill from luck by randomly reversing the direction of each trader's bets 10,000 times","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c6","statement":"Only 12% of top profit earners actually exceeded the benchmark","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c7","statement":"About 60% of 'lucky winners' turned to losses in separate samples","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c8","statement":"The dollar-per-price impact of insider trading was 7-12 times that of general skilled trading","as_of":"2023-2025","as_of_explicit":false,"as_of_raw":"2023-2025","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":"general_skilled_trading","type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null},{"id":"c9","statement":"Three new accounts made concentrated bets on Polymarket just before the U.S. military's operation to arrest Nicolás Maduro in January this year","as_of":"2026-01","as_of_explicit":true,"as_of_raw":"January this year","source_type":"research_paper","comparison":null,"type":"fact","figures":null,"expiry_hint":null,"insight":null}],"ai_emotional_context":{"valence":0,"arousal":0,"primary_emotions":[],"secondary_emotions":[],"emotional_triggers":[]}},"provenance":{"source_chain":["primary_reporting"],"original_source_url":null,"related_articles":[]},"temporal":{"freshness":"recent","next_update_expected":null},"access":{"license":"neupai_standard","attribution_required":true,"structured_data":"free","full_text_available":false,"full_text_access":null}}