{"@type":"StructuredNewsArticle","access":{"license":"neupai_standard","structured_data":"free","full_text_access":null,"full_text_available":false,"attribution_required":true},"content":{"claims":[{"id":"c1","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"폴리마켓의 2023~2025년 전체 거래 계정이 172만 개였다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":true},{"id":"c2","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"폴리마켓의 2023~2025년 거래 규모가 137억 6,000만 달러였다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":true},{"id":"c3","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"전체의 단 3.14%에 해당하는 계정이 가격 정확도의 대부분을 주도했다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c4","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"나머지 97%는 거래량과 유동성을 공급하지만 실질적인 정보를 만들어내지 못했다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c5","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"각 트레이더의 베팅을 1만 번 무작위로 방향만 바꿔 재현하는 방식으로 스킬과 운을 구분했다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c6","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"수익 상위권 중 벤치마크를 실제로 넘어선 계정은 12%에 불과했다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c7","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"'운 좋은 승자'의 약 60%는 별도 샘플에서 손실로 돌아섰다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c8","type":"fact","as_of":"2023-2025","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"2023~2025년","statement":"내부 정보를 활용한 거래의 달러당 가격 영향력이 일반 숙련 거래의 7~12배에 달했다","comparison":"general_skilled_trading","expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":false},{"id":"c9","type":"fact","as_of":"2026-01","figures":null,"insight":null,"as_of_raw":"올해 1월","statement":"올해 1월 미군의 니콜라스 마두로 체포 작전 직전 폴리마켓에서 신규 계정 3개가 집중 베팅했다","comparison":null,"expiry_hint":null,"source_type":"research_paper","as_of_explicit":true}],"topics":["예측시장","폴리마켓","집단지성","금융기술"],"summary":"런던비즈니스스쿨과 예일대 공동 연구팀이 폴리마켓 172만 계정을 분석한 결과, 전체의 3.14%만이 가격 정확도를 주도한다고 발표했다. 이는 예측시장의 '집단지성' 명제에 정면으로 도전하는 연구 결과다.","entities":[{"name":"런던비즈니스스쿨","type":"organization","metadata":{"parent":null,"ticker":null},"canonical_id":"org:gb:london-business-school","role_in_article":"source"},{"name":"예일대","type":"organization","metadata":{"parent":null,"ticker":null},"canonical_id":"org:us:yale-university","role_in_article":"source"},{"name":"폴리마켓","type":"company","metadata":{"parent":null,"ticker":null},"canonical_id":"corp:us:tittaco","role_in_article":"primary_subject"},{"name":"칼시","type":"company","metadata":{"parent":null,"ticker":null},"canonical_id":"corp:us:cab","role_in_article":"mentioned"},{"name":"미국 상품선물거래위원회","type":"organization","metadata":{"parent":null,"ticker":null},"canonical_id":"org:us:cftc","role_in_article":"mentioned"}],"headline":"폴리마켓 172만 계정 분석 결과…'집단 지성' 아닌 소수가 가격 결정","geography":["GB","US"],"ai_emotional_context":{"arousal":0,"valence":0,"primary_emotions":[],"emotional_triggers":[],"secondary_emotions":[]}},"@context":"https://neupai.io/schema/v0.2","identity":{"ai_url":null,"author":"앨리스","language":"ko","publisher":{"name":"테크42","type":"online","domain":"tech42.co.kr"},"article_id":"tech42_20260427_polymarket-analysis-elite-traders","updated_at":null,"originality":"self_produced","article_type":"straight_news","published_at":"2026-04-27T23:48:59.000Z","canonical_url":"https://www.tech42.co.kr/%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%a7%88%ec%bc%93-172%eb%a7%8c-%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%95-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d-%ea%b2%b0%ea%b3%bc%ec%a7%91%eb%8b%a8-%ec%a7%80%ec%84%b1-%ec%95%84%eb%8b%8c-%ec%86%8c%ec%88%98/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25ed%258f%25b4%25eb%25a6%25ac%25eb%25a7%2588%25ec%25bc%2583-172%25eb%25a7%258c-%25ea%25b3%2584%25ec%25a0%2595-%25eb%25b6%2584%25ec%2584%259d-%25ea%25b2%25b0%25ea%25b3%25bc%25ec%25a7%2591%25eb%258b%25a8-%25ec%25a7%2580%25ec%2584%25b1-%25ec%2595%2584%25eb%258b%258c-%25ec%2586%258c%25ec%2588%2598"},"temporal":{"freshness":"recent","next_update_expected":null},"provenance":{"source_chain":["primary_reporting"],"related_articles":[],"original_source_url":null}}